-
周波:如果中美唯一共识是避免冲突,那我们已经处于一场新冷战中
最后更新: 2024-05-08 21:55:59英文原文:
The enthusiasm of international relations pundits for talking about whether we have entered into another cold war is not surprising. It is like guessing the sex of a baby to be born. One has a 50% chance of being right. Not bad at all! The problem is that we shall only be able conclude it's a cold war when the prospect of an all-out war has eventually disappeared.
Predicting the future is a difficult business. But, presumably, three things will shape how the first half of the 21st century looks: the war in Ukraine, China-US competition in the Indo-Pacific and the rise of the “Rest” in contrast to the decline of the West in a changing world order.
Although no one knows how long the war in the heartland of Europe will last, no war lasts forever. The worst outcome would be for President Putin to decide to use a tactical nuclear weapon as a game-changer, while the best outcome would be an armistice, which no one likes. Ukraine can only fight on with the seamless and endless support of the West; this is not a sure thing if the war turns out to be one of attrition. Russia has failed to make obvious gains, but it can sustain the war given its advantages in manpower, military industry and an economy that is not substantively crippled by the war.
It seems probable that a new “Berlin Wall” will eventually appear in Ukraine. This will change Europe’s security architecture. Europe will have to live with a Russia that is much weakened but far more dangerous. It will be more dangerous precisely because it is much weakened, but still has the largest nuclear arsenal in the world.
The war in Ukraine will most certainly accelerate geopolitical and geoeconomic shifts from the West to the East. The Biden administration had hoped to put Russia policy on a “stable and predictable” footing in order to focus on China, which it perceives as a long-term threat. But the war has undoubtedly distracted America’s attention and syphoned off resources.
Cynically speaking, if there is consensus - the only consensus - between Beijing and Washington to avoid a conflict, then probably we are already in a new cold war. What makes this new cold war different, though, is that this is a rivalry between two giants, rather than two blocs. Washington could not lead an anti-China alliance and Beijing could not lead the Global South against America. All countries will deal with China and the US carefully, with pragmatism, making choices on specific issues, rather than blindly picking sides.
Much has been said about Taiwan becoming the next Ukraine. But a war in the Taiwan Strait is not inevitable so long as Beijing believes peaceful reunification is still possible. So far, Beijing has not lost patience. This is reflected in its defense budget which is still lower than 2 percent of its GDP, as it has been for decades. It is also reflected in the PLA’s second military exercise around Taiwan, in April. Unlike the first one, which involved live firing of weapons, after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s 2022 visit to Taiwan, Beijing’s April response was more calculated and measured, with only simulated attacks.
Whatever the outcome of the Ukraine war, two trends are likely to continue: the shrinking influence of the West and the further rise of the Rest. According to a Freedom House poll the western democracies have been in steady decline for 17 years. In contrast, countries are queuing to join the Shanghai Cooperation Agreement and the BRICS. Talk of trading with local currencies instead of American dollars is getting louder.
Should the world be afraid of China? This is the first question I was asked by Die Zeit in a recent interview. If the same question is asked of someone from a Global South country, I guess the answer, like mine, will be “no” . The major difference between Chinese and western involvements in the Global South is that China acts and delivers without moralizing. If there is a competition to win over third parties, the US-led West is very much losing to China, especially in Africa and Latin America.
At the Munich Security Conference this year, China and Russia were put on one side and the West on the other side, to mark a democracy-autocracy cleavage. Such a simplistic black and white picture is not how the world looks. Even if both Beijing and Moscow talk about a multipolar world, their world views are subtly different. Beijing is the largest beneficiary of the globalization that depends on the existing international order; Moscow resents that order and considers itself a victim of it. As its relations with Washington grow steadily worse, Beijing has at least maintained a plausible relationship with the West; this appears to be impossible for Moscow now.
But when China and the West talk about the international order, are they talking about the same thing? The prevailing idea in the West is that the international order after World War II is a West- led “liberal international order” . This is narcissism. Although many rules, regimes and even institutions such as the IMF, the World Bank and GATT/WTO were designed and built by the West after World War II, they are primarily found in the economic field and cannot define a whole system. The international order should include, among other features, different religions, cultures, customs, national identities and social systems. And it must address globalization, climate change, pandemics and nuclear proliferation, to name but a few.
It remains to be seen whether China can surpass the United States to become the largest economy in the world by 2030. This won’t matter much economically in that any difference will be marginal. But it will have a psychological impact. The world will perceive a new dawn to have arrived. This will not be a Pax Sinica. Rather, it will be a return to common sense: nations rise and fall. The only “city upon a hill” is the empty temple of the Parthenon.
本文系观察者网独家稿件,文章内容纯属作者个人观点,不代表平台观点,未经授权,不得转载,否则将追究法律责任。关注观察者网微信guanchacn,每日阅读趣味文章。
-
本文仅代表作者个人观点。
- 责任编辑: 戴苏越 
-
“美禁令未必有效,57%含新疆棉样品被标仅用美国原料”
2024-05-08 21:48 -
习近平同塞尔维亚总统武契奇举行会谈
2024-05-08 20:59 观察者头条 -
两名乌军军官涉嫌企图暗杀泽连斯基被捕,美俄回应
2024-05-08 20:44 乌克兰之殇 -
美撤销部分企业对华为出口许可证,商务部回应
2024-05-08 20:19 华为 -
习近平同武契奇共同会见记者
2024-05-08 20:17 -
泰国新卫生部长上任首日:重新考虑大麻合法化政策
2024-05-08 19:53 禁毒战争 -
习近平宣布中方支持新时代中塞命运共同体建设首期6项举措
2024-05-08 19:22 中国外交 -
两年资金外流30亿美元,乌克兰农民为逃税竟出这些“奇招”…
2024-05-08 18:40 乌克兰之殇 -
两国元首共同宣布深化和提升中塞全面战略伙伴关系,构建新时代中塞命运共同体
2024-05-08 17:55 -
以代表威胁:若联大通过,美国将停止资助联合国
2024-05-08 17:00 巴以恩仇录 -
习近平检阅塞尔维亚仪仗队
2024-05-08 16:53 -
习近平:相信这次访问必将开启中塞关系崭新的历史篇章
2024-05-08 16:45 -
习近平同塞尔维亚总统武契奇举行会谈
2024-05-08 16:18 中国外交 -
“黑手党式恐吓”,美议员向国际刑事法院发威胁信被曝光
2024-05-08 16:08 -
习近平抵达塞尔维亚大厦前广场 出席武契奇总统举行的欢迎仪式
2024-05-08 16:08 -
阿塔否认巴基斯坦指控:已向中方保证,与恐袭无关
2024-05-08 16:04 巴铁 -
习近平将出席塞尔维亚总统武契奇举行的欢迎仪式
2024-05-08 15:54 中国外交 -
中方将公布与菲军方的通话录音?外交部表态
2024-05-08 15:51 南海局势
相关推荐 -
德国警告:贸易战只有输家,没有赢家 评论 40“若这么干,就能连通中国,拥有一条泛亚铁路” 评论 143“和谈应基于当下事实,泽连斯基已失合法性” 评论 176“美国想要中国大陆和台湾对抗,东盟没必要卷入” 评论 155习近平考察山东:努力成为北方地区经济重要增长极 评论 33最新闻 Hot
-
“和谈应基于当下事实,泽连斯基已失合法性”
-
“全球科技巨头都是中国和美国的,这太疯狂了!”
-
“与中国比”?印外长寻求扩大对中亚、中东和非洲影响力
-
美军回应:正关注印太地区“所有活动”
-
俄安全局局长确认:乌军方情报部门与此案有直接关联
-
“普京希望以当前战线谈停火,西方不回应就继续打”
-
为这事,以色列痛批德国:许多人都需检查自己的道德准则
-
“巴方赔偿方案出炉:每人51.6万美元”
-
“美国想要中国大陆和台湾对抗,东盟没必要卷入”
-
“香港女警或入选第四批预备航天员载荷专家”
-
法国酒商不满欧盟对华政策:别连累我们
-
联大通过争议性决议,武契奇:感谢中俄投下反对票
-
“欧盟专员威胁我,小心成为下一个菲佐”
-
以色列杠上西班牙:绝对忍不了
-
菲防长拒绝评论解放军演习:台海局势属于中国内政
-
直击演练现场:轰炸机前出岛链,实施模拟打击
-