The Alaska summit between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin was a test balloon for Trump to find out, as he said, what Putin had in mind. The subsequent meeting in the White House between Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and European leaders was another test balloon – for Europe – to find out what Trump had in mind. Both were useful yet not really productive.

To start with, Putin has emerged as a clear winner. The red-carpet welcome on American soil with a historical connection with Russia could not have been more gratifying.

If well begun is half done, Putin has capitalised on the occasion by springing an invitation on Trump to travel to Moscow for the next talk. If successful, Russia’s isolation in the West would be gradually lifted. Even better if Trump wants to talk about anything else that could help to turn the West-sanctioned country into a normal one.

And Putin most certainly knows how to flatter. As he said: “Today, when President Trump [said] that if he was the president back then, there would be no war. And I’m quite sure that it would indeed be so.” How can Trump not nod to this?

It is easy to understand why the war, which has gone on for 3½ years, shows no sign of ending soon. What one cannot achieve on the battlefield can hardly be gained at the negotiation table. It is also easy to understand why Russia wants to talk about a peace agreement rather than a ceasefire.

Why would Russia hurry to put down arms when it is making significant progress on the battlefield and has yet to fully control the four regions it regards as its territory?

In contrast, Trump is now sandwiched between Putin and Zelensky. Both have praised him but neither has moved much by way of compromise. Notable among Trump’s many promises is his bragging about solving the conflict in 24 hours – it is now more than 200 days into his presidency. He will probably have to go to Moscow soon. If he doesn’t, it’s not only his credibility, but also America’s clout, that will be in doubt.

The “land swap” Trump repeatedly mentions is a hoax.How can a land swap happen at all? Trump’s suggestion is essentially for Ukraine to sacrifice its land in exchange for peace.

At the White House talks, Trump said America was committed to providing security guarantees for the Ukrainians. But what exactly are they? Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte has admitted there was a lack of clarity.

US envoy Steve Witkoff claimed Putin had signalled openness to the United States offering Ukraine Article 5-style protection – Article 5 is Nato’s collective defence mandate. I doubt that. Putin would know it risks moving Ukraine one step closer to joining the transatlantic security alliance.

Europe, meanwhile, can sigh with relief after the Alaska summit, it seems. Its worst fear was that the summit would turn out to be another Yalta conference – the 1945 meeting where world leaders met to divide up Europe. But there won’t be a second Yalta. Europe believes the Ukraine war is an existential challenge. It is determined to help Ukraine economically and militarily even if the US decides to walk out.

Such a strategy has worked. Trump has said he would initiate a meeting between Zelensky and Putin, followed by a trilateral meeting with him.

The ball is now in Ukraine’s court. If Zelensky does not cede territory to Russia – a challenging act given Ukraine’s constitution – will Ukraine really fight till the last man? Russia’s population is more than three times bigger than Ukraine’s. The Russian government has mobilised more men and arms than Ukraine has. It has paid huge salaries and bonuses to Russian soldiers. In spite of the heavy losses on both sides, the war of attrition is more affordable for Moscow than for Kyiv.

Both Russia and Europe view the war as existential. That Russia was only able to conquer 1 per cent more of territory in Ukraine last year tells of the battlefield stalemate to come.

But time is on Russia’s side. It wants to make sure Ukraine never gains Nato membership. This looks achievable. Although Nato still holds that Ukraine’s path of entry is irreversible, it won’t provide a timeline. Russia also wants to make sure Ukraine’s military is downsized. This may be. Thanks to the exodus of almost 7 million people and war casualties, Ukraine’s population has already shrunk.

Amid the fog of war, a new European security landscape is starting to appear on the horizon. That is, the ending of Nato’s expansion in Europe and the coming of a much smaller yet consolidated sphere of influence for Russia.

For decades, Russia’s warnings against Nato’s expansion fell on deaf ears. Now, for the first time since the Cold War, Russia can reshape its strategic positioning vis-a-vis Nato. For Putin, the daily casualties brought about by the war are a necessary condition for the rebirth of a great nation.

So Russia will buy time and any ceasefire will not be confirmed soon. Meanwhile, as Trump himself acknowledged back in July: “We get a lot of b******t thrown at us by Putin, if you want to know the truth.”

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