-
周波:多重推力塑造中国蓝水海军
最后更新: 2021-11-30 08:15:55Can US count on Aukus and Quad?
Both China and the US have vowed to avoid a new Cold War. But if the rivalry is set to intensify, can the US count on its alliances in the Indo-Pacific?
Admit it or not, Aukus, the trilateral security pact between Australia, the United Kingdom and the US, and the Quad, involving the US, India, Japan and Australia, are Washington's thinly veiled dual approaches in containing China.
The question is, how useful are they? If the first of Australia's eight nuclear- powered submarines under Aukus is not going to be delivered before 2040, the subs will not become serious game changers. Instead, they will haunt Canberra for decades to come. Australia has no nuclear industry. If these subs have to be maintained from time to time in another country, Australia's submarine capability cannot be sovereign.
The Quad could grow into anything other than a useful military coalition against China.
Fundamentally, are the dialogue partners prepared to sacrifice their bilateral ties, especially the huge economic interactions, with China, to go on a hostile footing?
Militarily, Australia, a Quad member, is already part of Aukus. Japan, while not an Aukus member, is supportive of it. Therefore India's attitude towards China is critical to the survival and growth of the Quad. But even if India is not happy with the PLA Navy's presence in the Indian Ocean, it can hardly protest because all the military operations of the PLA in the Indian Ocean are humanitarian in nature, be it counter-piracy or disaster relief. There is no likelihood of a military clash between the PLA Navy and the Indian Navy in the Indian Ocean like the one in the land border areas between the two armies in June last year.
Blue water navy for a global China
If it is only for resolving the Taiwan and South China Sea issues, the PLA Navy does not need so many ships. As about 90 per cent of global trade travels by sea, the security of the international sea lanes cannot be more crucial for China, the largest trading nation and the largest crude oil importer in the world. A global China calls for a blue water Chinese navy.
This is why since December 2008, China has been sending flotillas to patrol the waters off the Horn of Africa. Almost half of the merchant ships escorted by Chinese task forces are foreign ships, a demonstration of how China tries to combine its own interests with its international responsibilities. In the Gulf of Aden, China has been working in tandem with the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, the European Union and the Combined Maritime Forces led by the US and other countries.
China aims to build a world-class military by 2049 when it celebrates its centenary. This is entirely possible as the PLA today is already seen by many as second only to the US military and there are still more than two decades to go. The question is how China might use its military that will one day be on par with the US military. Of course, a stronger PLA will be better positioned to protect China's sovereignty.
But unlike the US, China has no missionary zeal to intervene in the domestic affairs of others or to police the world. Despite speculation that China would establish a "string of pearls", that is, a series of overseas military bases across the Indian Ocean, China has so far built only a logistical supply base in Djibouti in 2017. It has no appetite to repeat the imperial overstretch that has, arguably, caused America's decline.
So, in a snapshot, how is one to view the PLA Navy?
Since 2010, Peace Ark, the hospital ship of the Chinese navy, has sailed around the world providing medical treatment to hundreds of thousands of people. This is in step with Admiral Zheng He's voyages in the Indian Ocean 600 years ago when his unrivalled fleet invoked more admiration than awe.。
If China's biggest destroyer Nanchang represents the hard power of China, then Peace Ark sends another message: the heft of a great power lies in humility.
Zhou Bo is a senior fellow at the Centre for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University and a China Forum expert.
本文系观察者网独家稿件,文章内容纯属作者个人观点,不代表平台观点,未经授权,不得转载,否则将追究法律责任。关注观察者网微信guanchacn,每日阅读趣味文章。
-
本文仅代表作者个人观点。
- 责任编辑: 沈玉萌 
-
美军侦察机罕见穿越台湾海峡
2021-11-29 15:32 台湾 -
本月第29天 我军军机再赴台湾空域
2021-11-29 14:24 长空铸剑 -
解放军军机今8度进入台空域 台媒:还差两天本月全勤
2021-11-28 16:05 长空铸剑 -
东部战区组织海空兵力持续在台海方向战备警巡
2021-11-26 22:01 台湾 -
俄白两国空军出动战机联合巡航边境
2021-11-26 15:12 -
退伍老兵“召回应战”?国防部批驳网上谣言:极不负责
2021-11-25 17:11 -
他鼓吹:中国不扩核是不明智的 美军当然要应对
2021-11-25 15:56 凉战 -
日媒:解放军两艘登陆舰本月在台湾岛东部海域演习
2021-11-25 13:50 台湾 -
日方通报中国2架军机飞越宫古海峡
2021-11-25 11:38 -
哈飞迎来复工复产第一飞 直20亮相
2021-11-24 16:24 -
外机亮武器挑衅,我军轰炸机对峙两个多小时
2021-11-24 13:48 长空铸剑 -
中俄防长举行视频通话,就今年两国联合巡航进行总结
2021-11-24 07:08 中俄军演 -
美舰穿航台湾海峡,东部战区回应
2021-11-23 15:21 台湾 -
“如果俄军坦克冲入乌克兰 北约联军会不会应对?”
2021-11-23 14:09 乌克兰之殇 -
台军:解放军6架战机进入“西南空域”
2021-11-23 11:23 台湾军事 -
美英澳签署首份核潜艇敏感技术协议
2021-11-22 20:23 -
伊朗革命卫队:9名士兵在与美军“直接战斗”中阵亡
2021-11-22 16:08 伊朗局势 -
“俄军集结了40个战斗群,将于明年1月份进攻乌克兰”
2021-11-22 12:57 乌克兰之殇 -
国家海上核生化应急救援队演练“敌方对我阵地实施化学袭击”
2021-11-21 21:00
相关推荐 -
最新闻 Hot
-
欧核中心理事会主席:我有信心中国科学家能做到
-
“俄计划建新管道,经哈萨克斯坦向中国输送天然气”
-
他又来:美国连胡塞都搞不定,怎么让盟友放心搞定中国
-
历史性一幕!iPhone在华市场份额跌出前五
-
加沙民众上街庆祝,结果以色列说…
-
44岁男子穿裙子戴假发只为逃出乌克兰,被抓现行
-
一驻韩美军在俄被捕,“涉盗窃和殴打女性”
-
普京下令“核武演习”,美方回应
-
3个月后米莱终于回应:岛在他们手上,不把这当挑衅
-
“欧盟工具箱里没有美国式TikTok禁令,他们有自己的方式”
-
地面进攻在即?以军疏散拉法平民,哈马斯警告“后果”
-
中法欧领导人三方会晤结束
-
“我明确一点,不建议对华保持距离,我们需要中国人”
-
“五一”近3亿人次出游,较2019年同期增长28.2%
-
欧盟又挑争端?点名上汽、比亚迪、吉利,或抬高关税
-
问界回应山西M7车祸四大疑问:事发车速超过AEB工作范围
-