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穆罕默德·萨奇布:“印度外交政策就像一个逃婚的新娘,我们也不清楚自己在做什么”
以下为英文原文:
It has been the case that BRICS is working, but it has not really achieved much beyond establishing the New Development Bank. It’s an achievement, but they are not really fulfilling the kind of things they can do. So probably BRICS is underperforming so far. We all know the problems and since morning, I have heard that we all have the solutions. But somehow in India’s case, problems and solutions are not getting together. There is a miss. India and China are the largest members of BRICS, this is probably the other biggest problem for the BRICS. Because China is too big. India, by comparison, is only one-fifth of China. India has big ambitions. China is a bit too cautious. So all these things coming together is not really solving the problem. Behind all this is political will. The political will is not happening. Like he mentioned, what is the purpose of BRICS?
I think Mr. Mi that it is not about that we five countries come together and generate a kind of economic model.Rather, I believe the idea was that these five large countries from different continents would serve as a magnet for developing countries to collaborate and work together. For example, South Africa for Africa, India for South Asia, China for Southeast Asia, and Brazil for Central America. That will make these five big countries to create sort of a magnet for other developing countries.
At the end of the day, we will have a conglomerate ofGlobal South or combination of Global South, but this did not happen. It's because there was no political will. People are using this as bridge, I can say from India that people are using these kind of groupings for the domestic political use, which is not really letting it go. For example, our Indian foreign policy has been used for the domestic political use.
As of today, India’s foreign policy is like a runaway bride. We are sleeping with somebody, dating with somebody, committing with somebody. We don't know what we are doing. So this is a problem that we do not really know. If we want to attract other developing countries which we want to bring in from the Global South, we just cannot do it. India is confused. China is a bit too cautious. A lot of developing countries, when I go and talk to them during my Global South work, people are looking up to China for the leadership, but China is not willing to be (a) leader. India is looking for the leadership, but people are not willing to make India leader. So this is the reason. Probably we will have to go beyond BRICS.
Number two, there is no focus. Every BRICS meeting in a country, you already have an agenda, then new country will add two more items in the agenda. The third country will add two more. So we have a huge list of items to be dealt in BRICS and we end up doing nothing. What I will rather suggestedis that there has to be some focused areas and some focused countries, for example, education and skill development. India has a huge population, the educated population, the 80% speaks English, so they are pretty much doing it.
For example, if BRICS have a skill and education initiative, India can be the leader in it. And because of the technical training and all the things, Russia can be co-leader in it. In every sphere of this thing, we have one leader from these countries, and we have a co-leader.There is a combination at the end of the year when they have to show something, show what they have achieved. For example, for BRICS education and development, it has to be India and Russia. Similarly for Brazil, it should be BRICS agriculture and food security initiative with Brazil and it should be led by South Africa because South Africa has the environmental protection, and then there's a leader in the Global South. For example, for Russia, Russia will be a kind of a co-host or co-leader in education with India, but it will be leader in energy security for the Global South.
So similarly, for all the five countries and plus eleven countries, we have worked out a table of what kind we should be the combination of the partners, a main leader, a co-leader, and some kind of performance they will have to show. That is not happening, and BRICS is not performing.
Another thing is that there has to be some kind of settlement. And you have to have private people. They are going to play a very important role if we really want to achieve something in BRICS. What I’m saying is private entrepreneurs fromGlobal South and I think this Beijing forum can play a very, very important role. You pick ten top businessmen from all the BRICS countries and have an elite club, like Beijing club now, an elite BRICS club. They have their own agenda, they know the issues, they can advise government and they can act on it. This will solve the problem. So there has to be some kind of targets. There has to be achievable targets and then some accountability at the end of the day, not officially, but unofficially.
And there needs to be more interaction, cooperation, and collaboration, but within BRICS, we have all the solutions. So in the morning, Mr. Di told us about the foreign payment issues. I'm talking about the trade issues. If we allow swapping of currency, then 86 % of the trade deficit among each other can be sorted out within Global South. We don't need to go to any either SWIFT or any other system. This is what it is.
I just want to reiterate the point which MadamLi Ming made. We are on the verge of a new world economic order. And most of the countries now in BRICS and other developing countries are brimming with lot of ideas, lot of innovation, capabilities and capacities and lots. What they need is a trigger and the trigger can be given by China, which is not happening.
For example, China is losing the demographic dividends because of their age of population, but India which is the youngest country in the world is there, with huge educated, English-speaking population, with a lot of engineers and scientists, whatever their work is. There can be a very good combination for India and China. You are a manufacturing hub of the world. India is pretty good in services. Probably the combination of hardware and software between India and China. We can not only carry the BRICS forward, but we can carry the whole Global South forward if you want to.
The thing is that I know our leadership and working system, but I do not know aboutChina, but somehow we get this feeling that China is being, I don't know the reasons, over cautious. It's still going to the fear of unknown. While you are seeing that your enemy is right next door, getting other countries is in your interest. America is doing the South China Sea. They are just hanging around you. And they can strike any time. You have to have more people, more friends with you. You have capability and capacity and goodwill to do it. But still we feel that China is moving very slow and it is very cautious.
And if something happens between China and U.S., I think it will not be China which is suffering, but the wholeGlobal South, the whole BRI. You probably do not realize how much contribution BRI has to other developing countries for the investment, how much psychological confidence you get from other developing countries when you are with China.
So people see that now we have an alternative to the Western system. I think China has done much more than the Bretton institutes will do, much more and bigger than that. So why do we need a World Bank, IMF approvals and all those things? I think China should take a step forward. And that is the only solution right now. This will not be for China, but this will be for the other developing countries.
- 原标题:在全球南方体系内,中国和印度能否手拉手? 本文仅代表作者个人观点。
- 责任编辑: 郑乐欢 
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