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罗思义:脱欧解释了为什么英国在香港问题上挑衅及开始对华为…
关键字: 鲍里斯·约翰逊英国脱欧特朗普香港问题华为5G英国对欧盟的出口占英国总出口量的42%,对美国的出口则仅占英国总出口量的18%。因此,从经济角度来讲,英国退出欧洲海关联盟,与美国签订自由贸易协定并不划算。事实上,英国部分资本、对冲基金和类似的金融机构不会因英国脱离欧洲经济体系而受到损失,但几乎所有的制造业、汽车业、制药业和大部分金融服务业则会损失惨重。此外,英国民众将因此大量失业、生活水平下降。
正因如此,反对鲍里斯·约翰逊的斗争在他就职之前就开始了。鲍里斯·约翰逊的计划之一是压制脱欧反对者,具体措施是就职后他将在10月31日——英国本应离开欧盟的日期前暂停议会。从本质上讲,这是一场“软”政变。然而,国会以多数票否决了这一提议,视之为非法行为——约翰逊所在的保守党就有40多名议员反对支持这一提议。
因此,为呼应美国利益,约翰逊计划在10月31日把英国从欧洲政治和经济体系(欧洲海关联盟)脱离出来,即“无协议脱欧”。但既然暂停议会的提议被否决,就不清楚约翰逊在议会中的支持者是否占多数。因此,这一问题将在秋季引发激烈的政治危机——二战以来英国最严重的政治危机。鉴于此,这场斗争的结果不仅将决定英国脱欧与否,而且将影响英国在香港、华为等中国其他问题上的立场。
中国的外交政策不允许其干涉他国内政,这与国际准则一致——而英国正式粗暴地违反了这一规则,干涉香港问题。但这并不意味着中国不会被其他国家发生的事所影响,有时候这种联系可能在表面上不是很明显,但这种影响会与社会力量的基本发展紧密相连。中国媒体已经清楚地注意到在最近的香港挑衅事件中英国那种咄咄逼人的态度。此外,中国媒体也注意到了围绕英国脱欧而不断增长的危机,但是鲜有媒体注意到两者的内在联系。
显然,基于上述原因,在未来几个月里,英国将面临来自其内部的亲特朗普和亲美势力的巨大冲击,他们希望英国更加坚定地追随美国。如果这些势力取得胜利,那么这对英国和中国(包括香港问题)来说,都将是一个打击。也许中国不会直接干预,但中国很有必要仔细关注并清楚地了解这些事件所揭示出来的问题。
附:本文英文原文
Brexit explains why Britain has played such a provocative role in Hong Kong
On Tuesday Britain announced that Boris Johnson became its new Prime Minister. This event has significant implications for China - including for Hong Kong and for Huawei. Johnson’s project is to turn Britain into the equivalent of the 51st state of the US – but without the right to vote! Because some Chinese media wrongly believe that Brexit is a domestic British issue, without major implications for China, or wrongly treated Boris Johnson as some sort of amiable fool, it is necessary to correct this and see clearly what is taking place and its consequences for China. In particular the international forces involved make clear why Britain has played such a provocative role in recent events in Hong Kong.
Britain’s role in Hong Kong
A specific feature of the present provocations in Hong Kong is clearly the role played by Britain – which has made a series of statements attempting to interfere in Hong Kong affairs, in contradiction to the 1997 ending of Britain’s colonial rule and return of Hong Kong to China. The Chinese Ambassador in London, and the Chinese foreign ministry in Beijing, have strongly replied to these. It is clear a certain division of labour has been created in attacks on China with the US concentrating on the trade war and Britain playing a particularly provocative role in relation to Hong Kong. But, as will be seen, this façade conceals the reality. Britain’s provocative policy is carried out by forces increasingly aligned with the US – it is not a difference in substance but merely a technical division of labour.
This present provocative role by Britain is particularly striking because it forms a sharp contrast to the situation only a few years ago of the ‘golden period’ of China-UK relations when Cameron was British prime minister. Britain at that time became the first G7 country to join the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) despite US opposition. Xi Jinping made a highly successful visit to Britain. At that time Britain, in line with the 1997 settlement, largely refrained from provocative intervention in Hong Kong. What therefore explains the change, and how is this related to Boris Johnson becoming British Prime Minister?
The answer to this question lies in the international and social dynamic behind Brexit – which is not at all a purely domestic British issue and has significant implications for China. Cameron’s development of the ‘golden period’ of British-China relations was directly tied to the fact that he represented that wing of British business which strongly supported Britain’s membership of the EU and he was a fierce opponent of Brexit – Cameron campaigned entirely against Brexit in the 2016 referendum and resigned because of his defeat in the referendum. Within that framework Cameron developed what was a highly rational strategy from the viewpoint of both Britain’s population and British capitalism of positioning Britain as the key gateway for China into the EU.
Cameron’s strategy for attracting China’s investment to Britain
Britain had great advantages in pursuing Cameron’s strategy. The City of London is Europe’s most important financial centre. It is the world’s largest centre for foreign exchange dealing, ahead of New York, and has already established a position as the largest market for RMB trading outside China. English is also the first foreign language most Chinese citizens learn and therefore Britain is much easier for many Chinese firms to operate in than Germany or France. Britain is a very important telecommunications centre and Cameron could ensure Huawei was able to participate in this important British market.
During the eight years I was in charge of London’s economic policy, from 2000-2008, I had numerous meetings with the financial companies of London and therefore knew personally how centrally they saw relations with China. A single anecdote sums this up - it was a joke among business circles of the City of London that it was very unfortunate that the Chinese Spring Festival was so close in time to the European Xmas, as after attending many dinners to mark Xmas they then had to attend many more to celebrate the Spring Festival and therefore it was impossible to control weight at that time of the year!
Cameron’s strategy was, therefore, extremely economically rational for British capitalism and Britain’s economic development. With many Chinese companies expanding abroad they saw Britain as a very suitable point of entry into the EU. Britain could gain from Chinese investment in addition to its already strong position as the financial centre of the EU - a real ‘win-win’ outcome for both Britain and China.
But to pursue such a strategy Cameron evidently needed calm and objective relations with China. This is the explanation of why during the ‘golden period’ Cameron therefore clearly tried to avoid becoming involved in provocations in Hong Kong.
The US against Cameron
But Cameron’s economic policy was totally unacceptable to those in the US who wanted to block China’s development. The days when Britain ruled the greatest Empire in the history of the world were, of course, long gone. But nevertheless, Britain remains a significant global economy – the sixth largest GDP in the world, with a high technological level and, in London, the most important international financial centre in the world outside the US. For Britain to be pursuing a ‘win-win’ relation with China, which although it benefitted Britain also benefitted China, was therefore unacceptable for anti-China circles in the US – which is why the US so strongly opposed Britain joining the AIIB. The US opportunity to comprehensively disrupt Britain’s good relations with China came with Brexit - and the key role of Boris Johnson within this which has culminated in him becoming Prime Minister.
The historical position of the US in regard to Britain’s membership of the EU had been to support this – as Britain was seen as a reliable US ally to influence EU policy. But Trump reversed this policy to instead favour disrupting the EU, therefore arguing for Britain to withdraw from the EU, and he forged close personal links with anti-EU forces in Britain.
This change in US policy to the EU necessarily followed from Trump overall international strategy. The policy of Obama and Hilary Clinton had been to seek to form a broad ‘anti-China alliance’ – to achieve which the US had to make concessions to its allies, which included good relations with the EU. Trump, however, considered the US could not afford such concessions and that instead allies should be forced to increase the resources they supplied to the US - so that the US would be strengthened in its confrontation with China. Because Germany was unwilling to transfer its resources to the US, through increased defence spending and acceptance of US tariffs, and Germany dominated the EU, therefore Trump concluded that Brexit must be pursued to weaken the EU. Support for Brexit was therefore integrally linked to Trump’s strategy to attack on China. To pursue this strategy Trump created close relations with Brexit supporters in Britain – the first British politician to meet Trump after his election as President was not from the governing Conservative Party but Nigel Farage who is now leader of the Brexit Party (see photo)
Boris Johnson links to the US
Boris Johnson fitted perfectly into Trump’s strategy. Johnson was born in the US and was a US citizen, as well as British citizen, until 2016 - although Johnson pursued his political career in Britain. Johnson’s policy was of strong subordination to the US – being, for example, a firm supporter of the invasion of Iraq.
Johnson was also ultra-derogatory about Chinese civilization writing: ‘high Chinese culture and art are almost all imitative of western forms: Chinese concert pianists are technically brilliant, but brilliant at Schubert and Rachmaninov. Chinese ballerinas dance to the scores of Diaghilev. The number of Chinese Nobel prizes won on home turf is zero, though there are of course legions of bright Chinese trying to escape to Stanford and Caltech.
‘There are Chinatowns and takeaways all over the world, but in Britain the culinary impact of China is dwarfed by the [Indian] subcontinent…. It is hard to think of a single Chinese sport at the Olympics, compared with the umpteen invented by Britain, including ping-pong [table tennis], I'll have you know, which originated at [British] upper-class dinner tables…
‘The Chinese have a script so fiendishly complicated that they cannot produce a proper keyboard for it…
‘As for military might – hard power – our fears are again overdone. The Chinese may have 2.5 million men in uniform, but of the long-range missiles you need to be a global power Beijing can wield only 20, which would make for a pretty brief fireworks display.’
Someone who was firm supporter of the US, and was derogatory about China, was, of course, an ideal candidate for Trump – who therefore duly went out of his way to publicly praise Johnson.
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本文仅代表作者个人观点。
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- 最后更新: 2019-07-24 11:19:35
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